The Semper International Blog

After feeling left out for the last few days as I was on vacation and Google decided to launch Lively… I have been catching up this weekend.

There are some cool features to Lively and I see a lot of potential in this platform. Would like to be able to have more than one video playing in a room and be able to control when they play and stop, but I am sure those are going to be fixed soon enough. 

This VW is nothing like Second Life, not really in the same ball park. I would say at this point it is a great way to introduce a larger audience to virtual worlds and then they can graduate into the amazing world of Second Life or some of the other more powerful VW’s out there.

Really like how the avatar movement is done, very intuitive. In fact as I was bouncing between SL and Lively I kept wishing SL movement was the same as Lively’s.

Was driving home this morning and thought, why not have one of the projects I am working in SL connect to Lively?? Went home and tested out the concept, hoping the in SL browser would open lively (Would have also solved the Mac issue of no Lively option). 

So I made a prim, added the web link script and the URL to the room in Lively I wanted and……  NOPE, platform not supported. Only way to do it was have a separate browser open up which defeats the purpose a bit. 

Would be interesting if this concept did actually work at some point.

Click on image to see larger.

Not 100% sure how to leverage the two platforms together in one immersive experience, but have some ideas…….

Many of you that know me and have heard me rant about Second Life, Video Games and in general Virtual Worlds and how they could become the way the internet looks in the 5 - 10 year range. Another factor in what was running through my mind was the concept of combining Google Earth and Second Life into a real life version of the real world. While there has been a lot of talk on blogs and in the media about these concepts, we all have our own takes and visions of how it will play out.

First, Thank You all for the huge number of responses. 

We honestly use this survey as a benefit for the industry in general 

and not for commercial reasons.

I think we all can be glad the first quarter is over; except for the fact that the 

second quarter, so far, seems to be even worse then the first. The last 2 

months have seen a severe contraction in most areas of the economy and 

in all geographic areas. The Fed’s actions last Summer came several sessions 

too late to avoid this contraction. The relentless negativity from the media over 

the last two years reached a crescendo of hysteria in August that has scarcely 

abated till just recently. We all are grateful for the news media’s recent more 

positive bias!!

A Big question now is have the stock markets hit bottom? If so, then the 

recovery will be approximately six months from that bottom. If you look at the 

current stock charts for Apple, the Dow and the NASDAQ over the last two 

years, It appears that we have hit the bottom and are on the upturn (barring 

another terrorist shock). If the charts are correct, then we should start to see 

improvements as early as September - October. Flex Staffing tends to be a 

leading indicator, like the stock market, so we at Semper should see improvement 

three to four months after the bottom. We will let you know. 

Another BIG change in the Industry this year was the demise of Annual report 

printing. One manager I spoke to, mentioned that last year they printed 100 Annual 

reports- this season only four. The result of the SEC allowing companies to post 

the reports “online.” This single change has had a huge negative impact in that 

segment of the industry. I think of what will happen to Blockbuster and the movie 

theatre chains once the movie studios release first run movies directly online. It 

will likely be a similar issue- MAYBE I should sell any holdings.

Now to the survey results:

As you recall, the results are in the new easier to read and understand format 

which reduces the need for commentary.

The question on profitability I am sure is high on everyone’s list. The trend line is 

clearly indicative of the stress we would expect to see ; this is a MACRO issue 

not just your firm.

The question on profitability I am sure is high on everyone’s list. The trend line 

is clearly indicative of the stress we would expect to see ; this is a MACRO issue 

not just your firm.

The hiring question reinforces the above two responses. Hiring has dropped off, 

but it seems staying at the same staffing level is the course most firms are going 

with. Maybe others agree that things will improve sooner than later. (br>

Clearly, keeping expenses limited is on everyone’s mind, with base pay and benefit 

costs showing big jumps in concern from respondents. Supply costs in general are 

now the largest percent concern of firms as opposed to technology issues.

In closing, we see positive news here in the expectations of sales for this quarter. 

Take a close look at the actual results and feel free to ask questions or give 

feedback - daver@semperllc.com

Click here to view the Survey:

http://www.semperllc.com/printing_survey/Semper_Survey_2008_Q2.pdf

Thank You

Every quarter end we conduct a survey of our client database to get a feel fro what they are seeing in their business. Of the thousands of emails we send out we usually receive about 1-2% response. While this still numbers in the hundreds, I find it interesting that the participation is so low. The value of information like this is very important in steering ones business and often times can help in decision making.

It is our hope that anyone reading our blog will participate in this survey and help us all have a clearer picture of where things stand today and what the next quarter may hold.

A always, we will share the results after they are compiled.

Follow this link
 
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=kSd_2bnMKfYs9ODpLm6V13LQ_3d_3d
to go directly to the web version of the survey.

Q1 Survey Analysis - January 2008We have reorganized the survey for this quarter. The new format makes it easier for you to track the changes historically, allowing you to spot trends. It also reduces the need for our commentary.The feds surprise reaction today is exactly the tonic that appears to be needed based on this survey-This survey shows several distinct trends:-This is now the third quarter in a row with a significant drop in companies reporting profitability.-The expectations for the coming quarter has dropped now for the second survey.-The decrease in hiring and the number of layoffs have both increased over the last survey - Both have accelerated.On a positive note- Companies are reporting a strong increase in orders over the last two weeks and this is the first survey in a while that Technology is less feared.The Quebcor news has many pluses and minuses for the industry as clients potentially shift vendors.If you have questions or would like us to add a question or topic please feel free to contact me directly - daver@semperllc.com Click here for the Results PDF 

Great insights on the future of video games and virtual worlds at Cyberposium 13 at the Harvard Business School. The panel consisting of the following people:   

Cory Bridges - Executive VP at Multiverse 

Mark Kern - CEO of Red 5 Studios

Chris Carella  - Chief Creative Officer of the Electric Sheep company 

Curt Schilling - Pitcher of the Boston Red Sox and owner of 38 Studio’s a video game development firm working on a self funded MMO.

Philip Rosedale - CEO of Linden Labs, makers of Second Life 

Mike Hirshland - A VC that invests in entertainment, web and gaming. 

The topic for this great panel are Online games and Virtual Worlds more than just entertainment.  Which anyone paying attention to this space right now understands they are. Serious games and virtual worlds are making significant increases in awareness and applications from education to B2B applications. 

Picture of panel: 

Print CEO blog had an interesting piece on Reading in America. Please find the original post here: Click Here Below is my comments on this. Brian Regan Comments:

Interactive media is here to stay. I was just having a discussion with my wife over the holiday weekend. We were at her parents home and I was silently watching their habits. My take was that their generation use media differently.

First off they watch TV, this medium tells them the story or information and they sit and watch it, not much interaction between them and the TV, although my Father in-law was not very happy about the Giants losing. During these times I would be online working on Second Life projects or posting on various forums about topics that interested me and I wanted to debate upon or on LinkedIN and networking.

The next was reading the newspaper. They spend Sunday morning reading a few different newspapers. At the same time I spent time reading my news online and using Google searches to dig deeper into things I found interesting and finding different things to read that spread out from there.

In both cases my in-laws sat back and read or watched what they were told to watch or read. Were as I spent time digging into things I wanted to learn more about and interacting with my media. We had some discussions at dinner and bother my in-laws and I knew about the latest news and various significant issues locally, nationally and globally.

In regards to reading less, I feel that I read quite a lot and find many things that interest me. From there I will tend to purchase access to sites with good material, buy books on the subjects and subscribe to magazines.

Interactive media is changing many things. Virtual Worlds like Second Life are drastically changing how our higher education schools are teaching future generations. No longer do they sit in classrooms and lecture, but use 3D worlds to explain their topics, allow students to interact with them with the environments. 

We have reorganized the survey for this quarter. The new format makes it easier for you to track the changes historically, allowing you to spot trends. It also reduces the need for our commentary.

This survey has a few notable items: This is the second quarter in a row with a significant drop in companies reporting profitability. Keep in mind our industry is not alone so watch your AR closely.

The question relating to labor costs again highlights base pay increases causing concern. This type of pricing pressure is significant for its inflationary implications.

Many respondents indicated they expect business to decrease or stay the same, with a full 19% indicating they did not expect increases. The last quarter of the year traditionally is a busy time. We noticed last year for the first time in many years, that the busy-time failed to occur. We wonder if others noticed and suspect a trend?

If you have questions or would like us to add a question or topic please feel free to contact me directly - daver@semperllc.com

Click here to view the Survey, PDF Format

The goal of your business is to make money. You need to show a profit on your P & L or all other business goals are moot. One obvious action is to cut expenses. But, At some point you need sales as well. We all know what a P&L looks like pluses and minuses are simple: sales are a plus and expenses are a negative. The goal is to have sales higher than the expenses. At what point does cutting expenses start hurting or become ineffective? When does looking for the lowest price end up costing the most?

Basically the above questions are similar and I’m using them to help round out the discussion. Lets use this current mortgage mess as an example. A homeowner looks to get the lowest priced mortgage possible; they find a 7-year ARM they can switch into. Four years ago that would mean $850 a month on a $250,000 note, the deal is done. In hindsight, maybe not such a great move. Here is another example: a new home buyer purchases a house for $250,000 with no down payment, a fixed rate for 7 years and interest only payments. They get a great LOW monthly payment and one would expect a first time buyer to make the minimum payments allowed. This would also allow their standard of living to rise higher than it should. Both of these are examples of bad decisions. The impact will, of course, be felt by all of us since many people made these bad decisions- IE lowest cost per month. In printing this happens many times with our clients, they play us off each other price wise, and we let them. It seems to me, it is too easy to get caught in a downward spiral with printers always competing on price alone. One solution is to buy all your competition and then drive the rest of the printers out of business. This oligopoly type situation sounds familiar, no?

Printers themselves are forced to push costs down to survive. With labor costs, sometimes they push to the point that they cannot attract the skills they need. Check out this blog: CLICK

In the end we can never cut expenses as much as we need to increase sales. I am a strong advocate of running a lean operation, but sales are by far and away the more important part of that P and L equation. And sales, is about quality, reliability, relationship, trust, and value. The sooner we get our clients and ourselves to start weighing the whole picture the better.

Just some thoughts.