Semper’s Q2 Survey Analysis - April 2008
First, Thank You all for the huge number of responses.
We honestly use this survey as a benefit for the industry in general
and not for commercial reasons.
I think we all can be glad the first quarter is over; except for the fact that the
second quarter, so far, seems to be even worse then the first. The last 2
months have seen a severe contraction in most areas of the economy and
in all geographic areas. The Fed’s actions last Summer came several sessions
too late to avoid this contraction. The relentless negativity from the media over
the last two years reached a crescendo of hysteria in August that has scarcely
abated till just recently. We all are grateful for the news media’s recent more
positive bias!!
A Big question now is have the stock markets hit bottom? If so, then the
recovery will be approximately six months from that bottom. If you look at the
current stock charts for Apple, the Dow and the NASDAQ over the last two
years, It appears that we have hit the bottom and are on the upturn (barring
another terrorist shock). If the charts are correct, then we should start to see
improvements as early as September - October. Flex Staffing tends to be a
leading indicator, like the stock market, so we at Semper should see improvement
three to four months after the bottom. We will let you know.
Another BIG change in the Industry this year was the demise of Annual report
printing. One manager I spoke to, mentioned that last year they printed 100 Annual
reports- this season only four. The result of the SEC allowing companies to post
the reports “online.” This single change has had a huge negative impact in that
segment of the industry. I think of what will happen to Blockbuster and the movie
theatre chains once the movie studios release first run movies directly online. It
will likely be a similar issue- MAYBE I should sell any holdings.
Now to the survey results:
As you recall, the results are in the new easier to read and understand format
which reduces the need for commentary.
The question on profitability I am sure is high on everyone’s list. The trend line is
clearly indicative of the stress we would expect to see ; this is a MACRO issue
not just your firm.
The question on profitability I am sure is high on everyone’s list. The trend line
is clearly indicative of the stress we would expect to see ; this is a MACRO issue
not just your firm.
The hiring question reinforces the above two responses. Hiring has dropped off,
but it seems staying at the same staffing level is the course most firms are going
with. Maybe others agree that things will improve sooner than later. (br>
Clearly, keeping expenses limited is on everyone’s mind, with base pay and benefit
costs showing big jumps in concern from respondents. Supply costs in general are
now the largest percent concern of firms as opposed to technology issues.
In closing, we see positive news here in the expectations of sales for this quarter.
Take a close look at the actual results and feel free to ask questions or give
feedback - daver@semperllc.com
Click here to view the Survey:
http://www.semperllc.com/printing_survey/Semper_Survey_2008_Q2.pdf
Thank You
1 comment April 28, 2008
